basically arguing that click fraud is now beyond endemic! You would therefore suspect that, with the amount of coverage that the subject has received, that click fraud would have a detrimental effect on the amount of future growth of Search Engine advertising. It would appear however that this has not been the case and that Search Engine advertising will continue to zoom ahead. This fact seems to be backed up by the research firm eMarketer who are predicting that the market for search engine advertising will increase from $10 billion, in 2005, to $15 billion, in 2006, a 50% increase. Why is this the case, you may ask? Well, the answer is simple; it boils down to ROI (Return On Investment). Ultimately, the most important factor that mitigates against collapse of confidence in Search Engine advertising is whether it offers a competitive or better ROI than other competing mediums, and in this case it generally does and whilst this continues to be the case click fraud, whilst irksome, will be overlooked or accepted.

It is true that figures such as 75 per cent of all advertisers, claiming that they have been victims of click fraud seems enormous but if you stop to consider the problem in context then the figure actually would seem remarkably low! If we look at it initially as an issue of theft and compare it to shoplifting, ask your self how many shops do you think have had incidences of shoplifting in their time? I would bet my bottom dollar that it is more than 75 per cent and I would be surprised if it wasn’t near 99.9 per cent! What do shops do about it? The answer is lots, everything from electric tags, video surveillance to guards. Does this stop it? Hell no. Could shops do more? Well yes, they could all set up counters and serve the public from behind them. Why don’t they? Because it would destroy their sales, thus, whilst they abhor it, try minimise it and try to catch shoplifters, they accept that it is going to happen and allow for it. The most important thing is their bottom line, the same applies to click fraud and advertisers, and it could be argued that click fraud would be far easier to carry out then shoplifting!

In many ways far more sinister is industrial sabotage. Doing ill to your competitors is not exactly new, and this form of fraud could be particularly harmful. I do believe however that with the right metrics this will become easier to detect especially with unusual click patterns. Secondly, if a competitor is ruthless or determined enough there are many other ways that they could sabotage you, but at the moment click fraud seems to be an easy form of assault.

I think that the doom mongers sometimes get ahead of themselves. They forget that in reality the industry is still really in its infancy. The big problems will only come when returns on advertising become pressured and alternative mediums are sought. At the moment we are far from this. For now, I think it is a question of Search Engines being seen to be trying to do something about the problem that they see as most important. If confidence is to be maintained, and settlements of class action suites and mutterings about ‘pay-per-action’ appear to be the response, I think ultimately though Search Engines will be loath to change the fundamentals of Search Engine marketing and that we must accept that click fraud will be part of the growing pains of the industry.

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